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Computación Cuántica

Learning to Quantify: Population-Level Insights and the First Steps to Structured Prevalence Estimation

Ponente: Diego Furtado Silva (University of Sao Paulo)

Resumen / Abstract:

"In the standard machine learning pipeline, we usually focus on assigning individual labels to new data and optimizing our models for instance-level accuracy. However, in many real-world scenarios, from monitoring public health trends to analyzing large-scale consumer sentiment, we are interested in summarizing the overall prevalence of classes within an unlabeled batch of data. This talk introduces the paradigm of "learning to quantify" (a.k.a. prevalence estimation or quantification), an essential but often overlooked field dedicated to accurately estimating class distributions within populations. We will explore why even the most sophisticated classifiers often fail as estimators when faced with label shift and how this discrepancy can lead to costly miscalculations in business and research. Moving beyond simple binary scenarios, we will discuss how to leverage this paradigm for structured data, specifically focusing on hierarchical relationships where labels are nested. By shifting the focus from "Who is this instance?" to "What is the true prevalence of this group?", attendees will gain a new perspective on model evaluation and learn practical strategies to derive reliable, high-level insights from noisy, real-world predictions, emphasizing the importance of population-level understanding for impactful research and decision-making."

Trustworthy AI Under Uncertainty: From Technical Performance to Human Reliance

Ponente: Zacharoula Papamitsiou (Research Scientist, SINTEF DIGITAL)

Resumen / Abstract:

"This seminar explores what it means to build and use AI systems that are trustworthy under uncertainty. Moving beyond a narrow focus on accuracy, it examines how uncertainty, trust calibration, and human judgment shape appropriate reliance on AI in practice. The seminar will argue that trustworthy AI is a matter of designing and deploying systems that support well-calibrated human trust. We will focus on four contexts where AI is increasingly influential: education, media, business innovation, and defence applications. Across these domains, the key challenge is not only whether AI systems are accurate, but how humans and institutions interpret their limits, calibrate reliance, and make responsible decisions under uncertainty. The seminar will explore how AI can support judgment without obscuring risk, amplifying overconfidence, or undermining accountable human decision-making, and highlight the relational nature of trust."